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Yes we REALLY can! Wow!
Before I go bury myself in blogs and polls...
why yes, Barack Obama, I would be honored to have you serve as my president.
He was so eloquent and moving and powerful and clear for the whole debate. McCain made some solid points, and sometimes his tone was improved over past encounters, but for the most part he was smug, condescending, and outright RUDE (interrupting Obama at the end of practically every answer? bastard) and just generally unpleasant. Sure he landed a couple single-line zingers, but 1) they were usually lies, and 2) the atmosphere right now doesn't CARE about zingers. People actually care about the (gasp!) issues! They care that Obama's plan is going to let them keep their healthcare but lower premiums, or provide them with healthcare that they don't have right now. They see right through McCain touting Palin's experience with disabled children through the example of autism (newsflash: Palin's child has Down's syndrome. They are NOT the same thing.) and they FEEL Obama's assertions of solidarity and support for the common American.
Obama is just such a wonderful speaker, and I know that he feels what he is speaking. Sometimes when McCain floundered through an answer I couldn't for the life of me figure out what he was even trying to say. Obama is always clear and articulate. I thought Obama very effectively countered most of McCain's very blatant lies and twistings of Obama's record or positions. Anyone paying attention is not sold on McCain's crap. And the amazing thing is that most people ARE paying attention!
There was a wonderful woman on CNN right after the debate. She was undecided before the debate, and spoke very eloquently about how she decided to involve herself in politics because she can't be an example to her children if she doesn't. She had a charming southern twang and was very firmly convinced by Obama. I really loved her, and I think she represents a lot of people right now.
In conclusion: YAY. *runs off to read blogs*
why yes, Barack Obama, I would be honored to have you serve as my president.
He was so eloquent and moving and powerful and clear for the whole debate. McCain made some solid points, and sometimes his tone was improved over past encounters, but for the most part he was smug, condescending, and outright RUDE (interrupting Obama at the end of practically every answer? bastard) and just generally unpleasant. Sure he landed a couple single-line zingers, but 1) they were usually lies, and 2) the atmosphere right now doesn't CARE about zingers. People actually care about the (gasp!) issues! They care that Obama's plan is going to let them keep their healthcare but lower premiums, or provide them with healthcare that they don't have right now. They see right through McCain touting Palin's experience with disabled children through the example of autism (newsflash: Palin's child has Down's syndrome. They are NOT the same thing.) and they FEEL Obama's assertions of solidarity and support for the common American.
Obama is just such a wonderful speaker, and I know that he feels what he is speaking. Sometimes when McCain floundered through an answer I couldn't for the life of me figure out what he was even trying to say. Obama is always clear and articulate. I thought Obama very effectively countered most of McCain's very blatant lies and twistings of Obama's record or positions. Anyone paying attention is not sold on McCain's crap. And the amazing thing is that most people ARE paying attention!
There was a wonderful woman on CNN right after the debate. She was undecided before the debate, and spoke very eloquently about how she decided to involve herself in politics because she can't be an example to her children if she doesn't. She had a charming southern twang and was very firmly convinced by Obama. I really loved her, and I think she represents a lot of people right now.
In conclusion: YAY. *runs off to read blogs*
no subject
But I do think there is change in the air. I think that we are at an unprecedented turning point in our history. The national approval rating for our government is at a record low. A record low! That has to mean something. The entire dialogue has been changed, and a striking majority want something different and yet reliable. Obama has resoundingly showed that he is that figure in all three of the debates, and public opinion is reflecting that.
A couple months ago, pundits were yammering about how Obama needs a 10 point national lead and over 50% of the popular vote. Well, guess what? They thought that was impossible, yet here we are, with still three weeks to go and his momentum, while slowing somewhat, certainly not reversed. (He's going to necessarily hit a ceiling, obviously, but he hasn't yet! The "undecideds" went for Obama by over 50% in this debate. I think he will tick even higher in the polls.) I simply do not see how a number like +7 in Virginia can be false. A sometimes argument - the Bradley Effect. You, as a 538 devotee, know this does not exist anymore. It simply doesn't.
As for voter turnout, I have faith that turnout is going to be great if not FANTASTIC. Record breaking, even, when it comes to young and black voters. The ground game and the passion that it represents simply cannot be discounted. There will be voter pressure and fraud from the GOP, sure, but for once the Democrats have a robust and committed network in place that will specifically focus on counteracting that effect. They will work their asses off to get people to the polls on that day, and more to the point, people WANT to get to the polls. I don't think enough people are going to succumb to a "landslide" narrative and stay at home - the advantage Obama has is simply too great.
I think you are sadly used to living in a red nation. Being a Democrat has been a disheartening and jading experience, from all that I can discern, for the past decades. But we are on the cusp of something different. Democrats have registered new voters in droves; Republicans who are actually willing to listen are hearing Obama's narrative and responding to it. Our nation is fundamentally different from what it was in 2004. And Obama is a figure that we can rally around - Kerry was not.
The winds of change are blowing. I simply am unconvinced by arguments to the contrary. I understand being worried, and I will be at risk of high blood pressure right up until election day. But when he wins - it will the best vindication of all time.
no subject
Yet -
First off, the Bradly effect is real. I voted in that gubenatorial election. I was SHOCKED. (I was about your age then) Everyone was SHOCKED. Bradley was a terrific man & great candidate. Even two decades later, do I think people will lie about whom they are voting for in a poll? Yes, I do. Now, I grant you that the polling is much much more sophisticated now. For voters under 35, race is a much less significant issue. For voters over 35 & especially over 50, it is an issue. I know people who I can not dissuade from the position that Obama is a Muslim and I live in the most liberal area of the nation. (Whenever the neocons want to scare people, they say "San Francisco", as if it is full of demons or something)
Our nation is fundamentally different from what it was in 2004.
No, it really isn't. The economy, which has been teetering for 18 months, collapsed, quite violently. If it weren't for that & McCain's epic fail at handling it, the polls would be 2 points apart. People are scared & willing to vote for something different because they realize the dire straits we are in.
Bottom line - Obama is a honest & decent man. I know he wants to do the right thing for us as a nation & as a world power. He has run a brilliant campaign. I believe he will find a way to get 270+ EVs on Nov 4.
And I hope it will be a landslide & voter mandate. If it is, there will be much drinking of sparkling wine at my casa that evening.