Yes we REALLY can! Wow!

[exsequar]

Before I go bury myself in blogs and polls...

why yes, Barack Obama, I would be honored to have you serve as my president.

He was so eloquent and moving and powerful and clear for the whole debate. McCain made some solid points, and sometimes his tone was improved over past encounters, but for the most part he was smug, condescending, and outright RUDE (interrupting Obama at the end of practically every answer? bastard) and just generally unpleasant. Sure he landed a couple single-line zingers, but 1) they were usually lies, and 2) the atmosphere right now doesn't CARE about zingers. People actually care about the (gasp!) issues! They care that Obama's plan is going to let them keep their healthcare but lower premiums, or provide them with healthcare that they don't have right now. They see right through McCain touting Palin's experience with disabled children through the example of autism (newsflash: Palin's child has Down's syndrome. They are NOT the same thing.) and they FEEL Obama's assertions of solidarity and support for the common American.

Obama is just such a wonderful speaker, and I know that he feels what he is speaking. Sometimes when McCain floundered through an answer I couldn't for the life of me figure out what he was even trying to say. Obama is always clear and articulate. I thought Obama very effectively countered most of McCain's very blatant lies and twistings of Obama's record or positions. Anyone paying attention is not sold on McCain's crap. And the amazing thing is that most people ARE paying attention!

There was a wonderful woman on CNN right after the debate. She was undecided before the debate, and spoke very eloquently about how she decided to involve herself in politics because she can't be an example to her children if she doesn't. She had a charming southern twang and was very firmly convinced by Obama. I really loved her, and I think she represents a lot of people right now.

In conclusion: YAY. *runs off to read blogs*

Comments

[wordsalone.livejournal.com]

This was excellent. Thank you.

[exsequar.livejournal.com]

You're welcome! I still feel a little silly acting like my opinions matter, but I actually feel informed for once! I'm glad you liked my commentary :)

[terribilita.livejournal.com]

He was so eloquent

BUT DON'T YOU KNOW BEING ELOQUENT IS THE WORSTEST THING EVER!? MCCAIN THINKS WE SHOULD ALL BE BUMBLING IDIOTS (SEE SARAH PALIN).

But seriously, a huge YES to this post. \o/

[exsequar.livejournal.com]

OH RIGHT I FORGOT THAT IGNORANCE IS A VIRTUE AND BEING EDUCATED AND THOUGHTFUL IS ELITIST AND BAD.

Oops!

;)

(LOOK AT THE PRECIOUS OBAMAS omg. <3333)

[rogerpittman.livejournal.com]

I've just finished reading the transcript from CNN - some very well thought out answers on Obama's part. McCain did get in some good points, but I'd have to score this debate for the Democrat side.

[exsequar.livejournal.com]

Obama got on so many beautiful rolls. And it didn't feel recycled like some of his stuff in Debate 2 - he said some new and exciting things that really made me sit up and listen. I loved it.

All the polls are tossing it to Obama handily, as I expected! Yay.

[shotofjack.livejournal.com]

I am exhausted by the whole thing. I had two martinis, two pieces of pizza, a huge salad, a glass of red wine & two bowls of ice cream to make it through the debate & after debate commentary. That is more calories than I usually consume in a week! The stress is killing me. And I haven't even hit the blogs yet. My eyes are crossed from the electoral college projections!

Actually, I think it is much closer than most national polls suggest (although I hope it isn't). Basically, like 2000, I think it will all come down to Florida. *shakes fist at Florida* I can't wait until November 4th and neither can my waist line, haha.

[exsequar.livejournal.com]

This is an odd perception that runs entirely counter to my own, so I'd like you to expand on that - what makes you think it's closer? I think it's actually even better than the polls say and that we are looking at a possible landslide here. West Virginia is wobbling, because finally the American public has woken up, seen the light, and accepted Barack Obama as their personal savior as a person they'd be comfortable having as President. My friend Thomas, the staunchest Republican I know, admits that he hates McCain, even though he hates Obama more. If that's true for him, think of the millions who are worried about their own pockets. This momentum is more than real, it is staggering, and I think it will manifest on election day as a massive, at least 300 EV and probably more like 330-350 EV victory for Obama.

So, uh, rebuttal? Haha.

[shotofjack.livejournal.com]

National polls - most importantly, they don't matter. The national vote counts for nothing, only the electoral vote matters. But, I know you understand this because you have the same addiction to 538 as I do.

So, the states. I remain unconvinced that VA, OH, CO or NV will vote blue. I will be Thrilled to be wrong. But, they are red states traditionally. I know VA is tracking quite blue at the moment but I still won't believe it until the votes are counted.
I am fairly certain that battlegrounders IA, PA, NM, MI & NH will be blue. (Actually, I've been laughing at McCain campaigning in recent days in IA & NH when he could gain so much more in CO, NV, OH &/or VA.)
So, that leaves FL as critical. FL can redeem itself after the 2000 debacle. Voter suppression in FL is a reality, especially since the state is run by Republicans. But, Obama's ground campaign is strong, there are lots of young and minority voters there and it deserves a chance at redemption. So, GO FL!

Now, don't get me wrong - a huge EV victory would make me happy, thrilled, exultant. I just think that sending out a message of an expected 330+ EV count is premature and might work against getting voters to the polls.

Remember - I've been voting since 1980 & only experienced TWO presidential voting victories, both Clinton. I know too much about dashed hopes & sucky presidential winners. In 2000, I could barely breathe through it all. In 2004, this country re-elected W who can barely construct a sentence & had already proved himself as an utter disaster as a president. So, I take nothing for granted until the concession speech.

Last Friday on Bill Maher, the comic, Dana Gould, said he wouldn't believe Obama won until the third year of his first term. I so understood that sentiment!

[exsequar.livejournal.com]

I suppose I understand skepticism, and it's true I'm coming into this fresh and unjaded.

But I do think there is change in the air. I think that we are at an unprecedented turning point in our history. The national approval rating for our government is at a record low. A record low! That has to mean something. The entire dialogue has been changed, and a striking majority want something different and yet reliable. Obama has resoundingly showed that he is that figure in all three of the debates, and public opinion is reflecting that.

A couple months ago, pundits were yammering about how Obama needs a 10 point national lead and over 50% of the popular vote. Well, guess what? They thought that was impossible, yet here we are, with still three weeks to go and his momentum, while slowing somewhat, certainly not reversed. (He's going to necessarily hit a ceiling, obviously, but he hasn't yet! The "undecideds" went for Obama by over 50% in this debate. I think he will tick even higher in the polls.) I simply do not see how a number like +7 in Virginia can be false. A sometimes argument - the Bradley Effect. You, as a 538 devotee, know this does not exist anymore. It simply doesn't.

As for voter turnout, I have faith that turnout is going to be great if not FANTASTIC. Record breaking, even, when it comes to young and black voters. The ground game and the passion that it represents simply cannot be discounted. There will be voter pressure and fraud from the GOP, sure, but for once the Democrats have a robust and committed network in place that will specifically focus on counteracting that effect. They will work their asses off to get people to the polls on that day, and more to the point, people WANT to get to the polls. I don't think enough people are going to succumb to a "landslide" narrative and stay at home - the advantage Obama has is simply too great.

I think you are sadly used to living in a red nation. Being a Democrat has been a disheartening and jading experience, from all that I can discern, for the past decades. But we are on the cusp of something different. Democrats have registered new voters in droves; Republicans who are actually willing to listen are hearing Obama's narrative and responding to it. Our nation is fundamentally different from what it was in 2004. And Obama is a figure that we can rally around - Kerry was not.

The winds of change are blowing. I simply am unconvinced by arguments to the contrary. I understand being worried, and I will be at risk of high blood pressure right up until election day. But when he wins - it will the best vindication of all time.

[shotofjack.livejournal.com]

I'm not saying you're wrong. You may well be totally & 100% right. The polls showing a double digit lead may be dead on accurate.

Yet -
First off, the Bradly effect is real. I voted in that gubenatorial election. I was SHOCKED. (I was about your age then) Everyone was SHOCKED. Bradley was a terrific man & great candidate. Even two decades later, do I think people will lie about whom they are voting for in a poll? Yes, I do. Now, I grant you that the polling is much much more sophisticated now. For voters under 35, race is a much less significant issue. For voters over 35 & especially over 50, it is an issue. I know people who I can not dissuade from the position that Obama is a Muslim and I live in the most liberal area of the nation. (Whenever the neocons want to scare people, they say "San Francisco", as if it is full of demons or something)

Our nation is fundamentally different from what it was in 2004.
No, it really isn't. The economy, which has been teetering for 18 months, collapsed, quite violently. If it weren't for that & McCain's epic fail at handling it, the polls would be 2 points apart. People are scared & willing to vote for something different because they realize the dire straits we are in.

Bottom line - Obama is a honest & decent man. I know he wants to do the right thing for us as a nation & as a world power. He has run a brilliant campaign. I believe he will find a way to get 270+ EVs on Nov 4.

And I hope it will be a landslide & voter mandate. If it is, there will be much drinking of sparkling wine at my casa that evening.

[exsequar.livejournal.com]

One more thing - Obama doesn't need Florida. If he wins everything that is VERY solidly blue right now, he has 264 EVs. To win, he just needs to add CO, OH, or VA. Any ONE of them, and he's got it. Colorado has been staunchly blue on 538 for weeks! NV is also looking more and more likely! And while it's boggling that VA could go blue, I see it as more than a possibility.

Basically, it's possible that his victory might be narrow, but that's only at the very minimum of what's going for him right now. I just can't see the polls failing that spectacularly.

[shotofjack.livejournal.com]

I totally realize he only needs one of CO, OH, VA (I said as much in my first comment) But....

CO, OH, VA - I'm unconvinced any of them are going blue. CO is only a few points apart depending on the poll, ditto on OH which has fluctuated up down left right, etc. VA's polls are most blue but until it is declared as an Obama winner, I just don't believe it. I know VA has dem governor & dem senator so I should believe but race is a factor in VA.

Of those three, I see CO as perhaps most potential blue-ish because of its environmental record & young population.

If they all go blue, - much sparkling wine at my casa!

[riverdresses.livejournal.com]

I actually fell ASLEEP before the debates came on, so I didn't get to see them. :( (& my mummy's all 'O, WAIT TIL MORNING WE SHALL KNOW ALL.' WTF WOMAN, I WANT TO KNOW NOW.)

ANYWAY! Point of my comment is, do you have any particular political blogs that you think should TOTALLY be read? I'd love to see a few, but ah, there are so many, this girlie wouldn't know where to begin!

& I TOTALLY agree about Obama being a clear & very articulate sort of speaker - it extends to his books too. in The Audacity of Hope, which I LOVED, he wrote about political things & stuff I usually don't understand PERIOD in a way that I totally got it after a couple of read-throughs & I actually felt like I understood it better.

Seriously. Your whole post had me going \O/ \O/ \O/ \O/ LIKE WHOA. :D

[exsequar.livejournal.com]

I would start with The Huffington Post, which has a lot of different bloggers weighing in (though it does skew very liberal, but whatevs). Then I'd pop over to DailyKos.com and scroll through, they posted all the immediate poll results and other types of reactions. I'd also check out FiveThirtyEight.com, which is my BIBLE of polls and analysis, though they were kinda quiet tonight due to server issues. I check it every day though and you should too :)

YAY Obama! I really really want to pick up one of his books, I will definitely look into that one!

[crediniaeth.livejournal.com]

I read a good portion of Dreams From My Father as research for my final english paper over the summer, and OMG it's fantastic! I only got as far as his beginning work in Chicago, but if you want to know where the man got his ideals and his start, it's a wealth of knowledge. Two thumbs up!

[riverdresses.livejournal.com]

O, thanks a tonne, Anne! :D I've got FiveThirtyEight open in one tab & I'm about to check out DailyKos. I'm definitely adding both to my Google reader!

& The Audacity of Hope is AMAZING. I read it around my last birthday & when I was done, I KNEW I had to vote for this man. I haven't read Dreams From My Father yet, because my mummy can't find her copy, but I may buy my own in the meantime. It's on my must-read list. :D

[strange-bt-true.livejournal.com]

I'm so excited for Nov. 4th. I'm not even a US citizen, but it has major ramifications for the rest of the world. Obama is just... when he talks, I believe him. He wants change just as much as all of us, if not more. Being the total spaz that I am, I missed the election yesterday *facepalm*, but hopefully someone thought to record it. I watched the Town Hall format debate though, and I was thoroughly unimpressed with McCain. It seemed that, instead of answering questions PROPERLY, he just pointed fingers. And when he did the whole "that one" thing... yeah, I lost a whole lot of respect for him. I'm all for competition, but you should still respect your opponent.

Seriously, I'm so ridiculously invested in this election, if McCain wins, I really will cry.

OBAMA FTW!!!! ;)