I suppose I understand skepticism, and it's true I'm coming into this fresh and unjaded.
But I do think there is change in the air. I think that we are at an unprecedented turning point in our history. The national approval rating for our government is at a record low. A record low! That has to mean something. The entire dialogue has been changed, and a striking majority want something different and yet reliable. Obama has resoundingly showed that he is that figure in all three of the debates, and public opinion is reflecting that.
A couple months ago, pundits were yammering about how Obama needs a 10 point national lead and over 50% of the popular vote. Well, guess what? They thought that was impossible, yet here we are, with still three weeks to go and his momentum, while slowing somewhat, certainly not reversed. (He's going to necessarily hit a ceiling, obviously, but he hasn't yet! The "undecideds" went for Obama by over 50% in this debate. I think he will tick even higher in the polls.) I simply do not see how a number like +7 in Virginia can be false. A sometimes argument - the Bradley Effect. You, as a 538 devotee, know this does not exist anymore. It simply doesn't.
As for voter turnout, I have faith that turnout is going to be great if not FANTASTIC. Record breaking, even, when it comes to young and black voters. The ground game and the passion that it represents simply cannot be discounted. There will be voter pressure and fraud from the GOP, sure, but for once the Democrats have a robust and committed network in place that will specifically focus on counteracting that effect. They will work their asses off to get people to the polls on that day, and more to the point, people WANT to get to the polls. I don't think enough people are going to succumb to a "landslide" narrative and stay at home - the advantage Obama has is simply too great.
I think you are sadly used to living in a red nation. Being a Democrat has been a disheartening and jading experience, from all that I can discern, for the past decades. But we are on the cusp of something different. Democrats have registered new voters in droves; Republicans who are actually willing to listen are hearing Obama's narrative and responding to it. Our nation is fundamentally different from what it was in 2004. And Obama is a figure that we can rally around - Kerry was not.
The winds of change are blowing. I simply am unconvinced by arguments to the contrary. I understand being worried, and I will be at risk of high blood pressure right up until election day. But when he wins - it will the best vindication of all time.
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Date: 2008-10-16 06:19 am (UTC)But I do think there is change in the air. I think that we are at an unprecedented turning point in our history. The national approval rating for our government is at a record low. A record low! That has to mean something. The entire dialogue has been changed, and a striking majority want something different and yet reliable. Obama has resoundingly showed that he is that figure in all three of the debates, and public opinion is reflecting that.
A couple months ago, pundits were yammering about how Obama needs a 10 point national lead and over 50% of the popular vote. Well, guess what? They thought that was impossible, yet here we are, with still three weeks to go and his momentum, while slowing somewhat, certainly not reversed. (He's going to necessarily hit a ceiling, obviously, but he hasn't yet! The "undecideds" went for Obama by over 50% in this debate. I think he will tick even higher in the polls.) I simply do not see how a number like +7 in Virginia can be false. A sometimes argument - the Bradley Effect. You, as a 538 devotee, know this does not exist anymore. It simply doesn't.
As for voter turnout, I have faith that turnout is going to be great if not FANTASTIC. Record breaking, even, when it comes to young and black voters. The ground game and the passion that it represents simply cannot be discounted. There will be voter pressure and fraud from the GOP, sure, but for once the Democrats have a robust and committed network in place that will specifically focus on counteracting that effect. They will work their asses off to get people to the polls on that day, and more to the point, people WANT to get to the polls. I don't think enough people are going to succumb to a "landslide" narrative and stay at home - the advantage Obama has is simply too great.
I think you are sadly used to living in a red nation. Being a Democrat has been a disheartening and jading experience, from all that I can discern, for the past decades. But we are on the cusp of something different. Democrats have registered new voters in droves; Republicans who are actually willing to listen are hearing Obama's narrative and responding to it. Our nation is fundamentally different from what it was in 2004. And Obama is a figure that we can rally around - Kerry was not.
The winds of change are blowing. I simply am unconvinced by arguments to the contrary. I understand being worried, and I will be at risk of high blood pressure right up until election day. But when he wins - it will the best vindication of all time.