It's okay to hope.
Oct. 6th, 2008 01:37 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
exsequarI have never cared about politics before. The mere term "politics" was a dirty word to me, implying a group of greedy jerks who do a bunch of nasty things for their own benefit without any consideration for the people they supposedly represent.
I'm not ashamed of that mindset, nor surprised by it, because I came of age in the Bush era.
But it feels so much nicer to care.
These days, when I procrastinate on schoolwork, as often as not I'm refreshing FiveThirtyEight.com (I'm addicted) or Huffington Post, to see whether the new polls have come in, or whether Palin's shot herself in the foot again, or what new inspirational or beautiful thing Obama or his supporters have done. I'm paying attention to every aspect of the race, watching debates, reading the NYTimes columns, Newsweek, and CNN Politics. Right now, in fact, I'm supposed to be studying for a chemistry test tomorrow but instead was reading a new blog post on 538 and actually started crying.
The post is about the grassroots efforts in Indiana (stacks of hundreds of canvassing clipboards, a phone bank that's often so full that volunteers have no choice but to go canvas instead, separate and equally vigorous field offices run by the public and the students at Purdue University) and the support of a retired Senator, Birch Bayh (whose resume is damn impressive, including historic championing of the Civil Rights Acts, two Amendments, and Title IX). The post says:
Sean Quinn is an incredible writer, and I absolutely love reading his posts. Nate is great too. They both have a clear, eloquent way of writing that makes things I once would have brushed off crystal clear to me. Because of them, when my dad mentioned looking at the new electoral map posted by NYTimes, I launched into a mini rant about their lack of a transparent methodology, their questionable labeling of Colorado as a tossup and Washington and Oregon as only leaning Dem (Colorado is very strongly in the Dem column at this point, while WA and OR have been staunchly blue from the start with no sign of wavering) and how they don't even acknowledge that Indiana and Missouri and North Carolina are listing notably blue and should at the very least be labeled battleground states. I love FiveThirtyEight because it takes such a mathematical approach. I think the media refuses to acknowledge that traditionally staunchly red states are indeed wavering. Obama is aiming for an extremely ambitious chomp out of Bush 2004 territory, and he's bloody well succeeding. He's practically yanked Virginia all the way into his column (Virginia!!) and it's looking good for him essentially everywhere else. He's even competitive in one of the congressional districts of Nebraska! (Which allows its electoral votes to be split up.)
I am very optimistic at this point. I know that's possibly naive, possibly jinxing the whole thing, but I can't bring myself to care. I feel a change in the air, as cheesy as that may sound. The whole rhetoric is changing. McCain is trying to drag the tone back down under an ugly anchor (accusing Obama of "palling around with terrorists"? A claim fully debunked back in primary season? Really??) but he's not chaining down that hope burgeoning in my chest. There are so many things going for Obama at this point, and so few against. One of my favorite factors is that it's likely that polls are underrepresenting Obama's lead. Polls have a very hard time factoring in the young generation, due to the "cell phone problem" and our tendency to strictly filter who has access to us (not answering unknown calls, filtering email, etc). And more than ever, the young demographic is very strongly skewed towards Obama, as well as more inclined to actually vote. Futhermore, Obama's supporters include many demographics that do not traditionally turn out strongly - inner city minority populations, for example, which are likely very underrepresented by polling. The black population in general is going to, I hope, turn out more strongly than it ever has before, and polling models are not adjusting to take account for this trend.
This is only good news for Obama. His national lead is at a mindboggling 7 or 8 points, well outside of the margin of error, and I think that number is SMALLER than reality.
There's change in the air. The era of hijacking government in favor of the ludicrous freedom of the few, at the price of millions upon millions left to fend for themselves in a system that continually cares less about them, is coming to a close. We are saying Enough Is Enough. It is time that the people of this country get factored in to how it is run. The government of a republic should not be a hateful monster, yet that is what it has become. There is a desperate need for a mutual rebuilding of trust, empathy and understanding.
The process of healing can begin now. It can begin with Barack Obama.
I'm not ashamed of that mindset, nor surprised by it, because I came of age in the Bush era.
But it feels so much nicer to care.
These days, when I procrastinate on schoolwork, as often as not I'm refreshing FiveThirtyEight.com (I'm addicted) or Huffington Post, to see whether the new polls have come in, or whether Palin's shot herself in the foot again, or what new inspirational or beautiful thing Obama or his supporters have done. I'm paying attention to every aspect of the race, watching debates, reading the NYTimes columns, Newsweek, and CNN Politics. Right now, in fact, I'm supposed to be studying for a chemistry test tomorrow but instead was reading a new blog post on 538 and actually started crying.
The post is about the grassroots efforts in Indiana (stacks of hundreds of canvassing clipboards, a phone bank that's often so full that volunteers have no choice but to go canvas instead, separate and equally vigorous field offices run by the public and the students at Purdue University) and the support of a retired Senator, Birch Bayh (whose resume is damn impressive, including historic championing of the Civil Rights Acts, two Amendments, and Title IX). The post says:
"[Bayh] talked about his own grassroots campaign that first elected him to the US Senate in 1962. What he's seen with Barack Obama's operation in the state of Indiana this time around reminds him of that grassroots surge that won him the Senate seat in this traditionally red state. After speaking about the value of an engaged citizenry, and the consequences of detaching from the public policy arena (the previous eight years being his primary example), Bayh made a prediction.And that's when I started crying.
On the night of November 4, at that early six o' clock hour that is almost always an immediate blot of red in a largely empty map (Indiana reports early), America is going to see something different this time.
A dot of blue." -Sean Quinn, FiveThirtyEight.com
Sean Quinn is an incredible writer, and I absolutely love reading his posts. Nate is great too. They both have a clear, eloquent way of writing that makes things I once would have brushed off crystal clear to me. Because of them, when my dad mentioned looking at the new electoral map posted by NYTimes, I launched into a mini rant about their lack of a transparent methodology, their questionable labeling of Colorado as a tossup and Washington and Oregon as only leaning Dem (Colorado is very strongly in the Dem column at this point, while WA and OR have been staunchly blue from the start with no sign of wavering) and how they don't even acknowledge that Indiana and Missouri and North Carolina are listing notably blue and should at the very least be labeled battleground states. I love FiveThirtyEight because it takes such a mathematical approach. I think the media refuses to acknowledge that traditionally staunchly red states are indeed wavering. Obama is aiming for an extremely ambitious chomp out of Bush 2004 territory, and he's bloody well succeeding. He's practically yanked Virginia all the way into his column (Virginia!!) and it's looking good for him essentially everywhere else. He's even competitive in one of the congressional districts of Nebraska! (Which allows its electoral votes to be split up.)
I am very optimistic at this point. I know that's possibly naive, possibly jinxing the whole thing, but I can't bring myself to care. I feel a change in the air, as cheesy as that may sound. The whole rhetoric is changing. McCain is trying to drag the tone back down under an ugly anchor (accusing Obama of "palling around with terrorists"? A claim fully debunked back in primary season? Really??) but he's not chaining down that hope burgeoning in my chest. There are so many things going for Obama at this point, and so few against. One of my favorite factors is that it's likely that polls are underrepresenting Obama's lead. Polls have a very hard time factoring in the young generation, due to the "cell phone problem" and our tendency to strictly filter who has access to us (not answering unknown calls, filtering email, etc). And more than ever, the young demographic is very strongly skewed towards Obama, as well as more inclined to actually vote. Futhermore, Obama's supporters include many demographics that do not traditionally turn out strongly - inner city minority populations, for example, which are likely very underrepresented by polling. The black population in general is going to, I hope, turn out more strongly than it ever has before, and polling models are not adjusting to take account for this trend.
This is only good news for Obama. His national lead is at a mindboggling 7 or 8 points, well outside of the margin of error, and I think that number is SMALLER than reality.
There's change in the air. The era of hijacking government in favor of the ludicrous freedom of the few, at the price of millions upon millions left to fend for themselves in a system that continually cares less about them, is coming to a close. We are saying Enough Is Enough. It is time that the people of this country get factored in to how it is run. The government of a republic should not be a hateful monster, yet that is what it has become. There is a desperate need for a mutual rebuilding of trust, empathy and understanding.
The process of healing can begin now. It can begin with Barack Obama.
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no subject
Date: 2008-10-06 06:30 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-06 08:23 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-06 01:17 pm (UTC)I hope you're right. I've never felt like this about politics either. It's a good feeling.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-06 03:05 pm (UTC)I'm starting to feel like the whole Sarah Palin thing (while extraordinarily mind-boggling to think that someone who only very recently adopted upper-level politics as a hobby) could really help Obama more than McCain. I feel like her pre-programmed answers and religious fanatacism and overall sense of disorientation with the world at large is waking a lot of people up. I know of people who were definitely going to vote McCain, not even entertain the possibility of considering Obama, who are now thinking of changing their vote entirely because of her. Now isn't that something? I'm not saying Obama isn't doing everything he can to get the message out, etc. I just find it interesting that such a "bold" move on the part of the Republicans to try and sway undecideds could end up hurting them in the end.
Hm. I can't believe the election is more than a month away.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-06 08:40 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-06 08:29 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-06 10:10 pm (UTC)Parts of me want to think that it's because the media wants to be cautious so that any changes dont come back and bite them in the ass, after all, there is an entire month left. Part of me thinks it's because a close race gives better ratings, and announcing a blowout now would hurt their readership. And a tiny part of me thinks that the media wants Obama to win, and by making it seem close they get more Obama supports to the polls. If it's an obvious win, why vote right?
As for the youth vote, I think it's a very very bad idea to plan around it. Hillary beat Obama by a big margin here in MA, even though there are enough college students to tilt an election, and MA laws allow registration in two states (but only voting in one of course). Based on what I've seen, youth talk but don't vote. The turnout in the primary only solidified what I saw in our Governers race 2 years ago.
As for me, I'd prefer Biden as president over Obama. The whole change thing isn't doing it for me, and a large part of that is because I was in Venezuela when Chavez was elected and in Brazil when Lula won. Guess what their platform was all about. Change = populist and I don't think basing a campaign around it is a good thing.
Hell, Deval Patrick, the governor of MA (who I voted for) ran a campaign that pretty much set up Obama, and he's been a pretty lame governor. The biggest change we've had is his casino proposal, which was voted down (so no change)
no subject
Date: 2008-10-07 02:17 am (UTC)*cookies*
no subject
Date: 2008-10-08 12:53 am (UTC)i'm looking for an icon.
mcr, mikey and gerard - brothers.
i thought it was one of yours? any chance you could direct me? no worries if no.
~Q~
no subject
Date: 2008-10-09 04:33 am (UTC)