Election 08: My take!
Nov. 3rd, 2008 09:18 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
exsequarI'd like to toss my hat in the speculation ring and provide my impression of what the race is going to look like tomorrow, based on information and anecdotes I have been inhaling for the past two months. So here goes!
BARACK OBAMA
TOTAL: 29 states+DC, 367 EV
JOHN McCAIN
TOTAL: 21 states, 171 EV
QUESTION MARKS: The most bold predictions in the above list are that Montana, North Carolina, and Missouri will go to Obama. These are all teetering right around or just behind the middle line. I have given them to Obama though in the belief that we are truly caught up in something that neither we nor the polls can parse or fully understand until after the fact. I wobbled on Florida for a bit, but the fact that McCain was greeted this morning in Tampa by a rally of 1,000 people, when his campaign expected 10,000, to me speaks volumes. The other question marks, on the other side of the fence, are Indiana, Georgia, and North Dakota. All of these are reliably red states... traditionally. This is not a traditional election. Indiana flirted heavily with Obama for a while there, and he still has an incredible ground game there (dwarfing McCain's, oh, nothing) so I think that could have a huge role. Good results in PA and VA could help nudge these states over in a wave situation. And I think Georgia's going to be the exciting state to watch for the evening, not just presidentially but in the senate race. I do hope they kick Chambliss out on his sorry ass.
So that's that! My impressions going into election day, so I can look back later and either go "Wow, THAT was optimistic," or "Wow, Obama even exceeded my expectations!" or "Hey, aren't I a smart little Nate Silver acolyte?" Should provide some interesting hindsight.
Now, I know you don't have to be told, but GO OUT AND VOTE TOMORROW!!!! My friends out in Cali, punch that NO to Prop 8 button with as much vigor as you can! If Obama won but Prop 8 won too, that would be a tragic blemish on the victory.
Did you know that in today's New York Times marriage announcements there were four gay marriages in CT and MA? My (wonderful, gay, flamingly liberal) boss at the library showed it to me, all pleased as punch. It was super cute. Now let's get the rest of the country on the right track (and keep CA on it!).
HAPPY ELECTION DAY!!! \o/
BARACK OBAMA
- Maine
- Vermont
- New Hampshire
- Massachusetts
- Connecticut (\o/)
- Rhode Island
- New York
- PENNSYLVANIA
- New Jersey
- Maryland
- Delaware
- VIRGINIA
- North Carolina!
- FLORIDA
- OHIO
- Illinois
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Wisconsin
- Iowa
- MISSOURI
- MONTANA
- COLORADO
- New Mexico
- Nevada
- California
- Oregon
- Washington
- Hawaii
- Washington DC
TOTAL: 29 states+DC, 367 EV
JOHN McCAIN
- West Virginia
- South Carolina
- Georgia
- Indiana
- Tennessee
- Kentucky
- Mississippi
- Alabama
- Louisiana
- Arkansas
- Texas
- Oklahoma
- Kansas
- Nebraska
- South Dakota
- North Dakota
- Idaho
- Wyoming
- Utah
- Arizona
- Alaska
TOTAL: 21 states, 171 EV
QUESTION MARKS: The most bold predictions in the above list are that Montana, North Carolina, and Missouri will go to Obama. These are all teetering right around or just behind the middle line. I have given them to Obama though in the belief that we are truly caught up in something that neither we nor the polls can parse or fully understand until after the fact. I wobbled on Florida for a bit, but the fact that McCain was greeted this morning in Tampa by a rally of 1,000 people, when his campaign expected 10,000, to me speaks volumes. The other question marks, on the other side of the fence, are Indiana, Georgia, and North Dakota. All of these are reliably red states... traditionally. This is not a traditional election. Indiana flirted heavily with Obama for a while there, and he still has an incredible ground game there (dwarfing McCain's, oh, nothing) so I think that could have a huge role. Good results in PA and VA could help nudge these states over in a wave situation. And I think Georgia's going to be the exciting state to watch for the evening, not just presidentially but in the senate race. I do hope they kick Chambliss out on his sorry ass.
So that's that! My impressions going into election day, so I can look back later and either go "Wow, THAT was optimistic," or "Wow, Obama even exceeded my expectations!" or "Hey, aren't I a smart little Nate Silver acolyte?" Should provide some interesting hindsight.
Now, I know you don't have to be told, but GO OUT AND VOTE TOMORROW!!!! My friends out in Cali, punch that NO to Prop 8 button with as much vigor as you can! If Obama won but Prop 8 won too, that would be a tragic blemish on the victory.
Did you know that in today's New York Times marriage announcements there were four gay marriages in CT and MA? My (wonderful, gay, flamingly liberal) boss at the library showed it to me, all pleased as punch. It was super cute. Now let's get the rest of the country on the right track (and keep CA on it!).
HAPPY ELECTION DAY!!! \o/
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Date: 2008-11-04 03:44 am (UTC)I am trying not to be paranoid about Ohio, but I have seen so many McCain signs around that it is hard not to be...